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Altcoin Season!

Take Advantage Of Altcoin Price Trends Of 2021

The evidence is abundant that 2021 is the year that will bring a jaw-dropping Altcoin Season. Just as the sun rises in the East and sets in the West, Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency to rise in price, and the Altcoins eventually follow.

Bitcoin Leads, The Altcoins Follow

There’s no questioning that Bitcoin is the definitive OG of the cryptoshere, as is most likely best highlighted by the point that the flagship digital asset has been in a position to pique the interest of many prominent legacy financial institutions – like Microstrategy, BlackRock, Grayscale – during the last year or thereabouts.

Not just that, in recent months, a selection of banks and venture capital funds as JP Morgan, Raiffeisen, Pantera Capital have projected BTC to scale past beyond the $100k mark with great ease (not to mention our own Bitcoin prediction exceeding $379,000 in 2021), indirectly indicating their growing confidence in this yet incipient asset class.

Even with all the sell offs and volatility which was witnessed during the last week, data available on the web definitely shows that the number of addresses with 1,000 or over Bitcoin (referred to as “whales” in the crypto world) has continued to increase. As is ALWAYS so with professional institutional money, the “buy-the-dip” strategy is employed with full force.

It’s called “talking your book” om Wall Street jargon.

While big institutional players plant news stories and give interviews that create fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) – thus driving the price down as nervous traders sell – at the same time they are accumulating for themselves at lower prices.

Like it or not, that’s standard operating procedure for traditional markets, and especially crypto.

Bottom line: whales continue to buy Bitcoin.

And where Bitcoin leads, the altcoins will follow.

Forecasting Altcoin Market Activity for the Coming Year

We’ve been pounding the table that 2021 is going to be another moonshot type of year due to the 4-year cycle. 2013 was the year of the first 4-year cycle top. 2017 was the second instance of a tremendous crypto bull run into the second top of the 4-year cycle.

2021 will be the year of the third top of the 4-year cycle.

In order to gain a better understanding of how the 4 year cycle top will play out, we’ll go back and examine the previous iteration of the cycle.

Looking At The Altcoin Season Of 2017

It’s been said that “History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme.” If you go back and look at historical prices of Bitcoin from previous years, it’s very obvious that Bitcoin isn’t following the 4-year cycle precisely 100% on a daily basis, but the correlation is over 90%.

In other words, Bitcoin price action rhymes with previous Bitcoin price action.

Let’s look closely at Bitcoin’s price action in 2017 as well as the leader of the altcoins, Ethereum.

Bitcoin Price Action In 2017

Bitcoin was priced at $1,003 on January 1, 2017.

It took 138 days for Bitcoin to double in price. (May 18)

It took 216 days for Bitcoin to triple in price. (August 4)

It took 226 days for Bitcoin to quadruple in price. (August 14)

It took 284 days for Bitcoin to quintuple in price. (October 11)

Ultimately, Bitcoin went up more than 19-fold into the 4-year cycle high on December 17, 2017.

Ethereum Price Action In 2017

Ethereum was priced at $8.20 on January 1, 2017.

It took 60 days for Ethereum to double in price. (March 1)

It took 72 days for Ethereum to triple in price. (March 13)

It took 74 days for Ethereum to quadruple in price. (March 15)

It took 75 days for Ethereum to quintuple in price. (March 16)

By the first day of summer, June 21, Ethereum had increased in price by a factor of 41 times over.

Ultimately, Ethereum went up more than 170-fold into the 4-year cycle high on January 10, 2018.

Altcoin Season Lessons

Looking at the above prices of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can gain insights into how the altcoin season of 2021 will unfold.

Here are some key takeaways:

  1. Once altcoin season starts to gain momentum, prices of meritable altcoins will rise faster than Bitcoin.
  2. March is likely to be a very good month for the leading altcoins.
  3. By the summer of 2021, a handful of the best altcoins should be as much as 40 times higher in price compared to where they started the year.
  4. The top altcoins could go up in price more than 150 times their value at the start of the year.
  5. Bitcoin will reach its 4-year cycle peak 3 to 4 weeks before the altcoins do, and will start its new bear market.
  6. The entire altcoin market will follow Bitcoin into its next bear market.

Specific Price Targets

There’s no question in our minds that 2021 is going to be a very, very exciting year for cryptocurrency investors.

You should, however, remember that prices don’t move in a straight line higher. Bitcoin Experienced several LARGE drops in 2017, even though the the overall trend was wildly bullish.

The same is likely to be the case this year.

If you’d like to see some of our specific 2021 price predictions for specific coins, simply head on over to this page.

Altcoin Season Basics

An altcoin season is also a term used for a season in which an altcoin is outperforming the price of the original: Bitcoin. There are three stages to an altcoin season. The first stage is when there is a profiting trend on an altcoin that is very new, or a trend that is new to a particular altcoin. The second stage is when the profiting trend dies down, and there is no longer any substantial profit potential from the altcoin in question.

In the third phase, after the profiting trend has died down, the altcoin season starts to see a new influx of traders who are looking to make a long position in the market. By this stage, the profitability potential in trading on any altcoin is significantly reduced. During the second phase, the price movement of all-time high prices of bitcoin continues on its upward trek.

One of the factors that makes the altcoin season so interesting to follow is the fact that there is considerable amount of volatility in the market. The large increase in volatility is what allows an investor to profit from the trading of ether and another high valued alternative currency. Volatility is usually considered a good thing for experienced traders because it increases the opportunities to profit from price movement – both UP and DOWN.

For investors and holders, however, the volatility can be nerve wracking.

lastly, it’s important to remember that the altcoin season doesn’t last forever. In fact, most (statistically it’s over 90%!) investors lose money during the bearish period. However, if you find several profitable altcoins during this time, it can be literally, life-changing.

Come the end of 2021, just remember one fact: trees don’t grow to the sky.

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It’s Not Just Institutional Thirst, Retail Demand For Crypto Reaches ‘Unprecedented’ Levels

There’s just not enough Bitcoin to meet demand.

That’s not just some hopium-based fantasy by the leader of a fringe crypto cult.

No, it’s simple fact from tallying just a couple places where Bitcoin can be bought.

We’ve reported that institutional money is moving into cryptocurrency assets, and that institutional demand is higher than it has ever been.

Retail demand is also currently at “unprecedented levels.”

Unprecedented levels

Israeli trading and investing platform Etoro warned customers in Europe on Friday of possible limitations on crypto purchasing over the weekend. In an email, the exchange said: “The unprecedented demand for crypto, coupled with limited liquidity, presents challenges to our ability to support buy orders over the weekend. In light of this, it may be necessary for us to place limitations on crypto buy orders.”

eToro’s statement acknowledging unprecedented demand is just one of many that point to the fact that there isn’t enough Bitcoin available at today’s prices to meet demand.

Pantera Capital’s recent monthly letter to investors states that:

In last month’s investor letter we discussed that after 30 months of operation, Square’s Cash App is estimated to be buying around 40% of all newly-issued bitcoin.

PayPal just launched their new service that enables customers to buy, sell, and hold cryptocurrency directly from their PayPal accounts. It’s already having a huge impact.

The bitcoin community is proud to have grown to 100 million users over twelve years. PayPal has 300 million active users. As we’ve argued — and will argue more fully in our December investor letter — this rally is much more sustainable than 2017. One of the main differences is the ease of investing in bitcoin now — via PayPal, Cash App, Robinhood, etc.

Previously the friction to buy bitcoin was pretty onerous: take a selfie with your passport, wait days to a week to get activated, daily limits.

Three hundred million people just got instant access to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies.

BOOM! The results are already apparent.

PayPal’s crypto infrastructure provider is Paxos. Prior to PayPal’s integration of crypto, itBit, the Paxos-run exchange, was doing a fairly constant amount of trading volume — the white line in the chart below.

When PayPal went live, volume started exploding. The increase in itBit volume implies that within four weeks of going live, PayPal is already buying almost 70% of the new supply of bitcoins.

PayPal and Cash App are already buying more than 100% of all newly-issued bitcoins.

Only 900 New Bitcoins Created Each Day

Bitcoin supply is growing daily. Literally, it’s growing by 6.25 newly created Bitcoins with each new block mined. By design, one Bitcoin block is mined every 10 minutes, resulting in an average of 144 new blocks every day. 144 x 6.25 equals 900 new Bitcoins created each day.

Genuine Bitcoin Investor Demand

As we reported above, just Paypal and Cash App are responsible for buying more than 900 Bitcoin per day.

Let’s look at another rather obscure place to buy Bitcoin: LocalBitcoins.com. This is a site outside of the massive mainstream crypto exchanges. It is sort of a peer-to-peer classified ad site that matches buyers with sellers on an individual level.

Compared to the big exchanges, such as Coinbase, this site is tiny. For instance, Binance alone had a Bitcoin trading volume in the past 24 hours of $2.77 billion at press time.

Contrast that to the average daily trading of Bitcoin at localbitcoins.com which is a mere $6 million. The difference in size is staggering. The point being, trading volume at localbitcoins.com is a tiny, extremely tiny, amount of Bitcoin being bought each day.

Now, be aware that most of the trading volume on Binance and other big exchanges is just that: trading, not investing. A trader can buy and sell multiple times per day with each of those trades adding into the cumulative total trading volume.

On localbitcoins.com it is definitely not “traders” doing the trading, it is mom and pop type of people buying Bitcoin to hold as an investment.

So let’s look at the numbers. $6 million worth of Bitcoin are being bought right now every day on localbitcoins.com.

How many Bitcoin is that?

$6,000,000/$37,000 each equals 162 Bitcoin.

Remember, there’s only 900 being created. And this tiniest little peer-to-peer exchange is responsible for its users buying up almost 1/5 of all newly created Bitcoin each and every day. This is purely Bitcoin volume, and does not include other cryptos such as XRP and Litecoin.

Paypal and Cash App are already buying more Bitcoin than are being created each day. This tiny little site is facilitating the buying of nearly 20% of all new Bitcoin being create. What about the customers of Binance? What about demand from the customers of Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken, Bittrex, Bitstamp, Huobi, Bitfinex, and hundreds of other exchanges are are many times lager than localbitcoins? Where will all the Bitcoin come from for those buyers to be able to purchase?

Only Existing Holders Can Supply Bitcoin To Match Soaring Demand

One thing is certain, there is no way to increase the supply of new Bitcoin being created each day and available on the market. With demand absolutely overwhelming new supply, that only leaves existing holders willing to sell in order to satiate buyer demand.

Which means only one thing: prices will continue to be bid higher.

There’s good reason for the crypto fear and greed index to be pegged on greed.

How high is high? Here’s our Bitcoin forecast for this year and beyond.