It’s has been a tradition of ours every Christmas day to look at the current price of Bitcoin and compare it to its price on previous Christmases.
Here is Bitcoin’s Christmas day price history:
2012: $13 <halvening>
2016: $890 <halvening>
2020: $24,664 <halvening>
2021: see below!
If you pay close attention the the historical price patterns of Bitcoin, you’ll notice some trends that really stand out. First, there is clearly a 4-year cycle at work. At the end of the 4th year Bitcoin reached its first price peak, reaching $701 on Christmas day of 2013.
4 years later, it reached its second peak, attaining $13,709 on Christmas day of 2017.
Notice that each of these peaks were exactly 4 years apart. Notice the the peak came a year after the Bitcoin halvening, when the mining rewards get cut in half.
What Will The Bitcoin Price Be On Christmas Day 2021?
Taking into account another crypto bull run in 2021 – due around next Christmas – we can make some projections based upon the past.
Obviously, with the ole standard disclaimer of past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, these are just projections. Bitcoin doesn’t have to follow the same price patterns that it has been following for the past 8 years.
So, looking purely at the past two cycles and using the prices on previous Christmas days, we can extrapolate where the Bitcoin price will be on December 25, 2021.
On Christmas day of 2012, Bitcoin was worth $13. The following Christmas, it had climbed to $701, a gain of 53.9 times its price the previous year.
On Christmas day of 2016, Bitcoin was worth $890. The following Christmas, it had climbed to $13,709, a gain of 15.4 times its price the previous year.
If Bitcoin continues to follow its 4-year cycle – which we believe it will – then on Christmas day of 2021 the price of Bitcoin will be between 15.4 and 53.9 times its price yesterday. Or, specifically, between $379,825 (15.4 times) and $1,329,389 (53.9 times).
While these numbers might seem outrageous, we are simply using Bitcoin’s trend and continuing it into the future. THIS IS WHAT BITCOIN HAS BEEN DOING SINCE IT WAS CREATED. Why assume that it will suddenly stop doing what it’s been doing since its’ beginning?
Please do consider that there is a monetary crisis developing. Please do remember that central banks are printing fiat like crazy “in response to economic conditions due to Covid-19”. Please do remember what happens to the price of Bitcoin the year after the Bitcoin halvening (see above), and that this year (2020) was the most recent halvening year.
It is not unreasonable to think Bitcoin will be on the high side of this range next year, and not towards the lower end.
We strongly believe Bitcoin will be creating many new millionaires in 2021.
Merry Christmas and a very Blessed 2021!