We’ve written frequently about the 4 year cycle in cryptocurrency prices. Cryptocurrency – this first of which was Bitcoin – was introduced in 2009. Four years later, in 2013, prices surged to a blowoff top. Exactly four years later, in 2017, prices again surged to another blowoff top.
Using this 4 year cycle as a guide, later this year, in 2021, the cryptocurrency market should again experience another blowoff top.
Let’s take a look at the previous altcoin season and use that price information to make an educated forecast of where the altcoin market is likely headed later this year.
Whereas Bitcoin was released in 2009, the first Altcoin wasn’t released until 2011. However, Bitcoin is the undisputed leader of the entire cryptocurrency market. The 4 year cycle in altcoins does not see a peak 4 years after the introduction of the first altcoin, but rather the altcoins follow the leader – Bitcoin – and rise and fall in tandem with it.
Here is the chart of the first blowoff top of the entire altcoin market cap:
You can see from the chart above that the total market cap of the entire altcoin market reached its peak of $2,004,339 billion on December 4, 2013.
Like Bitcoin, after reaching its blowoff top in 2013, the altcoins went into a bear market for the next 2 years.
It was not until June of 2016 that the altcoin market convincingly topped its previous all time high, and it wasn’t until more than 3 years later, on December 28, 2016 – exactly 1,120 days – that the altcoin market exceeded its previous all time high for good.
What did the altcoin market do after exceeding its old all time high for good?
The answer can be found in the following chart:
After permanently exceeding the 2013 all time high on December 28, 2016, altcoins then rose for the next 375 days to set a new all time high of $551,926,104 billion on January 5, 2018.
That’s a gain of 27,536%, or stated another way, 275-to-1.
Now let’s take a look at what has happened since then, and see if the altcoin market is following the same pattern, and if so where the 2021 altcoin season is heading.
The 4 Year Cycle In Action
Like what happened in 2013, after reaching its blowoff top in 2017, the altcoins went into a bear market for the next 2 years.
It wasn’t until more than 3 years later, on February 11, 2021 (4 days ago!) – exactly 1,133 days – that the altcoin market exceeded its previous all time high for good.
The cycles are amazingly close. In the previous altcoin cycle it took exactly 1120 days for the altcoin market to convincingly exceed its previous record peak, and in the current altcoin cycle it has taken 1133 days to do the same.
The difference in timing is a mere 13 days, which is only one tenth of one percent!
So where to from here?
The Next Altcoin Blowoff Top
Using this cycle as guidance, it would indicate that the altcoin market will go up for the next 375 days and reach a top on February 20, 2022.
If the overall percentage gain is identical, that would place the total altcoin market cap at over $151 trillion.
We want to give you a heads up regarding news stories that you are almost certainly going to be subjected to this year: In 2017, the higher the price of Bitcoin climbed, the more stories were published about the “Bitcoin bubble”.
There are a couple of reasons why the bubble is sure to burst. The first is just that it’s a bubble, and any chart which looks like the one at the top of this post is bound to end in tears at some point.
Bitcoin gave back most of its gains on Tuesday after billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban said in a series of tweets the digital currency is in a bubble. Cuban Tweet: I think it’s in a bubble. I just don’t know when or how much it corrects. When everyone is bragging about how easy they are making $=bubble
Is the latest frenzy like tulipmania, a gold rush or the dotcom boom? MARKETS frequently froth and bubble, but the boom in bitcoin, a digital currency, is extraordinary. Although its price is down from an all-time high of $2,420 on May 24th, it has more than doubled in just two months.
There are hundreds upon hundreds of news stories from 2017, all claiming that Bitcoin was in a bubble and implying that anyone holding Bitcoin was going to lose everything once the bubble popped.
These stories were published in every month of the year, however, the higher the Bitcoin price climbed, the more frequent the stories became.
We expect the same stories to be rolled out again en masse this year, as the price of cryptocurrencies soar in a major, breathtaking bull market.
There are bear markets, and there are bull markets. If our forecast is correct, the top of this bull market in cryptocurrencies will not be reached until mid to late December this year.
We are not going to let the coming onslaught of Bitcoin bubble stories frighten us into selling prematurely.
The evidence is abundant that 2021 is the year that will bring a jaw-dropping Altcoin Season. Just as the sun rises in the East and sets in the West, Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency to rise in price, and the Altcoins eventually follow.
Bitcoin Leads, The Altcoins Follow
There’s no questioning that Bitcoin is the definitive OG of the cryptoshere, as is most likely best highlighted by the point that the flagship digital asset has been in a position to pique the interest of many prominent legacy financial institutions – like Microstrategy, BlackRock, Grayscale – during the last year or thereabouts.
Even with all the sell offs and volatility which was witnessed during the last week, data available on the web definitely shows that the number of addresses with 1,000 or over Bitcoin (referred to as “whales” in the crypto world) has continued to increase. As is ALWAYS so with professional institutional money, the “buy-the-dip” strategy is employed with full force.
While big institutional players plant news stories and give interviews that create fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) – thus driving the price down as nervous traders sell – at the same time they are accumulating for themselves at lower prices.
Like it or not, that’s standard operating procedure for traditional markets, and especially crypto.
And where Bitcoin leads, the altcoins will follow.
Forecasting Altcoin Market Activity for the Coming Year
We’ve been pounding the table that 2021 is going to be another moonshot type of year due to the 4-year cycle. 2013 was the year of the first 4-year cycle top. 2017 was the second instance of a tremendous crypto bull run into the second top of the 4-year cycle.
2021 will be the year of the third top of the 4-year cycle.
In order to gain a better understanding of how the 4 year cycle top will play out, we’ll go back and examine the previous iteration of the cycle.
Looking At The Altcoin Season Of 2017
It’s been said that “History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme.” If you go back and look at historical prices of Bitcoin from previous years, it’s very obvious that Bitcoin isn’t following the 4-year cycle precisely 100% on a daily basis, but the correlation is over 90%.
In other words, Bitcoin price action rhymes with previous Bitcoin price action.
Let’s look closely at Bitcoin’s price action in 2017 as well as the leader of the altcoins, Ethereum.
Bitcoin Price Action In 2017
Bitcoin was priced at $1,003 on January 1, 2017.
It took 138 days for Bitcoin to double in price. (May 18)
It took 216 days for Bitcoin to triple in price. (August 4)
It took 226 days for Bitcoin to quadruple in price. (August 14)
It took 284 days for Bitcoin to quintuple in price. (October 11)
Ultimately, Bitcoin went up more than 19-fold into the 4-year cycle high on December 17, 2017.
Ethereum Price Action In 2017
Ethereum was priced at $8.20 on January 1, 2017.
It took 60 days for Ethereum to double in price. (March 1)
It took 72 days for Ethereum to triple in price. (March 13)
It took 74 days for Ethereum to quadruple in price. (March 15)
It took 75 days for Ethereum to quintuple in price. (March 16)
By the first day of summer, June 21, Ethereum had increased in price by a factor of 41 times over.
Ultimately, Ethereum went up more than 170-fold into the 4-year cycle high on January 10, 2018.
Altcoin Season Lessons
Looking at the above prices of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can gain insights into how the altcoin season of 2021 will unfold.
Here are some key takeaways:
Once altcoin season starts to gain momentum, prices of meritable altcoins will rise faster than Bitcoin.
March is likely to be a very good month for the leading altcoins.
By the summer of 2021, a handful of the best altcoins should be as much as 40 times higher in price compared to where they started the year.
The top altcoins could go up in price more than 150 times their value at the start of the year.
Bitcoin will reach its 4-year cycle peak 3 to 4 weeks before the altcoins do, and will start its new bear market.
The entire altcoin market will follow Bitcoin into its next bear market.
An altcoin season is also a term used for a season in which an altcoin is outperforming the price of the original: Bitcoin. There are three stages to an altcoin season. The first stage is when there is a profiting trend on an altcoin that is very new, or a trend that is new to a particular altcoin. The second stage is when the profiting trend dies down, and there is no longer any substantial profit potential from the altcoin in question.
In the third phase, after the profiting trend has died down, the altcoin season starts to see a new influx of traders who are looking to make a long position in the market. By this stage, the profitability potential in trading on any altcoin is significantly reduced. During the second phase, the price movement of all-time high prices of bitcoin continues on its upward trek.
One of the factors that makes the altcoin season so interesting to follow is the fact that there is considerable amount of volatility in the market. The large increase in volatility is what allows an investor to profit from the trading of ether and another high valued alternative currency. Volatility is usually considered a good thing for experienced traders because it increases the opportunities to profit from price movement – both UP and DOWN.
For investors and holders, however, the volatility can be nerve wracking.
lastly, it’s important to remember that the altcoin season doesn’t last forever. In fact, most (statistically it’s over 90%!) investors lose money during the bearish period. However, if you find several profitable altcoins during this time, it can be literally, life-changing.
Come the end of 2021, just remember one fact: trees don’t grow to the sky.
Huobi futures has noted that in 2020 there has been an impressive $2.3 trillion traded with an average of 6.3 billion per day. Within two years since its launch, Huobi Futures is now the largest cryptocurrency derivatives exchange by trading volume.
According to the statistics of TokenInsight, BTC rose by 90% from September to October last year. The open interest of BTC/USD swaps has risen from $1.2 billion to $2.4 billion in the same period with a growth rate of 100%.
Making the process better
Huobi Futures has looked to keep in touch with the wants and needs of traders in order to offer a service that is robust, flexible, and easy to use. This has seen a number of different products and trading innovations launched.
From Coin-margined swaps to USDT-quoted options and coin-margined bi-quarterly futures, Huobi Futures offered improved services that lead to a new all-time high in 24-hour volume of over $28 billion on Nov. 26th.
Coin-margined Futures was the first product of Huobi Futures. Launched in December 2018, its trading volume has sustainably ranked first in the derivative market in only eight months. At present, Huobi’s coin-margined futures trading has included 13 major crypto assets with a unilateral trading volume of $1.32 trillion in 2020.
Following the introduction of their first flagship product coin-margined futures, coin-margined swaps launched on Mar. 27, 2020 and exceeded BitMEX, the largest coin-margined swaps exchange at that time, in 45 days. Its annual trading volume reached $785.5 billion in 2020 and it has covered 57 mainstream currencies, including a wealth of DeFi currencies for users to choose from.
In September last year, Huobi launched USDT-quoted options whereby users could trade without worrying about the risk of liquidation.
The fourth product USDT-margined swaps. Launched in Oct. 26, 2020 its trading volume has grown rapidly with its cumulative trading amount exceeding $177.8 billion in just two months.
What Has Huobi Futures Done In 2020?
Robust risk-control system and zero clawback
Huobi Futures is the first digital asset derivatives exchange in the industry that supports a three-phase liquidation protection mechanism and no transaction fees will be charged in partial liquidation. Moreover, the platform uses Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a second reference for forced liquidation.
Due to its strong risk control system, the platform holds a record of zero clawback for 752 days since its launch in December of 2018. In version V6.3.0., the system has a throughput of 10W+, the response speed of placing and canceling orders is within 6ms, and the link delay is within 25ms.
Huobi Futures supports multiple order types including Limit Order, Trigger Order, IOC and FOK. To improve the asset utilization and to reduce trading cost, Huobi introduced lots of innovative features like locked margin mechanism, take-profit and stop-loss, real-time settlement, Follow a Maker & Taker, etc.
Huobi Futures also designed the “Switchable Leverage When Holding Positions” function for its coin-margined positions. With no need to close positions first, users can switch leverage with positions holding as long as there is no open order. All these exciting functions empower both institutional and retail traders to fetch out maximum benefits in derivatives trading.
VIP level evaluations based on USD amount
Due to the fact that most crypto exchanges require at least hundreds of BTC to be traded per month to reach their VIP standard, many traders have been rejected by these platforms to get a VIP when the annual increase in Bitcoin price has risen by 400%.
On Huobi Futures, as long as you have assets worth of 30,000 USDT in Huobi Futures account, you will be qualified for VIP. In addition to that, Huobi introduced an upgraded VIP Sharing Program, that is, VIPs of any other exchanges are considered as Huobi Futures VIP+1. Users could provide certificates of VIP level on other platforms to apply for a VIP+1 level on Huobi Futures for coin-margined swaps and coin-margined futures trading.
As we head into 2021, it appears there has been a further shift towards the digitalization of most things, including money.
Crypto Rating – XLM $0.69 Crypto Rating, an esteemed authority and providing realistic price predictions on various cryptocurrency assets, has given XLM a price forecast of just $0.46 within a year, and in the next five years expects Stellar to reach a price target of $0.69. Given past performance, these estimates are modest.
The Economy Forecast Agency – XLM $0.64 The Economy Forecast Agency uses a long-term forecasting valuation model to predict prices of various assets, including cryptocurrencies, projects Stellar Lumens growth to reach just $0.64, matching the sentiment of many of the other experts and analysts listed.
Long Forecast Stellar Prediction – $0.30 Long Forecast gave an entirely conservative prediction, as their stellar price prediction forecasts that XLM might reach $0.30, which make sit look like it won’t grow much as compared to the current price.
Wallet Investor XLM Price Prediction – XLM $1.05 Wallet Investor updates prices and predictions every three minutes using the latest technical analysis. They have very conservatively made a 5-Year forecast of $1.005.
Mega Crypto Price – XLM $5.10 The price forecast at Mega Crypto Price has been very optimistic for all the cryptocurrencies and its the same for XLM price forecast, too, predicting that Stellar could be worth $5.10 by the end of 2020. The team says that this can be achieved as long as there are no major security flaws and the overall sector performs well.
Monetize Info – XLM $3.00 Monetize believes that Stellar’s major partnerships will be the major reason behind an upcoming price surge, which might result in XLM’s price reaching $2-$3 by 2020. Beyond IBM, Stellar’s partners include Stripe, Deloitte, etc.
For example, Stripe gave Stellar a 3-million-dollar capital injection a few years back which Stellar immediately returned in XLM.
The Economy Forecast Agency – XLM $0.64 This website features a long-range forecasting model to make market forecasts for corporate clients. The website has its own price prediction for 2020, which says XLM will see a high of $0.64 in 2020, which is by far the most conservative and pessimistic of XLM’s price predictions.
There are other popular websites that share predictions for the price of Stellar Lumens, however, the forecasts are rather outdated and have already proven inaccurate. For instance, cryptonewsz.com predicts:
The predicted high for 2021 might be around $0.089 and on the downside, the low might be around $0.065.
As of press time, January 20, 2021, and at last check the current price of XLM is just a tad under $0.29. Stellar Lumens has already tripled the yearly high predicted by cryptonewsz.com.
A Summary of Stellar Lumens Predictions
The above Stellar Lumens price predictions for 2021 range from a low of $0.10 to the highest XLM forecast price of $5.10.
Our Analysis suggests that all of the above 11 XLM predictions are too low.
It is our conviction that 2021 is the year in which the next 4 year cycle top is due. The first 4 year cycle top arrive in 2013, and the second 4 year cycle top arrived in 2017.
XLM To Surge For 4 Year Cycle High In 2021
Bitcoin is the only coin that we have data for both 4 year cycle tops. To calculate our Ethereum price prediction for 2021 we only had data from one 4 year cycle top. We reported that, “Ethereum went up by a factor between 89x and 173x during 2017 for the last 4 year cycle top.”
We use previous price performance as a guide to possible future price performance. Of course, it’s no guarantee, only a guide.
So what was Stellar Lumens’ price performance in 2017?
Stellar Lumens In The Previous 4 Year Cycle High
On January 1, 2017, XLM was priced at one-fourth of a cent, $0.0025. It ended the year at 36 cents, $0.36. However, it did reach an all time high 4 days later at over 93 cents.
Depending on whether you’re looking at the highest price reached on January 4, or whether you’re looking at the end of the year price 4 days prior, XLM went up in price between 144x and 372x.
We do not expect XLM to increase by the same amount. Bitcoin’s 2nd four year cycle saw gains much less than its first, and we expect Stellar Lumens to do the same.
All factors considered, including the macro financial climate, the new crypto-friendly administration in the U.S., and the 4 year cycle, we are expecting XLM to go up in price by a factor between 29x and 74x.
Stellar Lumens started this year at a price just shy of $0.13. Thus, are target high price for XLM at year end is between $3.77 and $10.01.
Stellar Lumens at $10.01 in 2021
We believe the conditions favor a very strong crypto bull run in 2021, and thus we are going to base our Stellar Lumens price prediction on the high side of the range and forecast an end of the year price target for XLM to be $10.01.
What Is Stellar?
Stellar is an open source, decentralized protocol for digital currency to fiat money transfers which allows cross-border transactions between any pair of currencies. The Stellar protocol is supported by a Delaware nonprofit corporation, the Stellar Development Foundation, though this organization does not enjoy 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status with the IRS.
Stellar is an open-source protocol for exchanging money or tokens using the Stellar Consensus Protocol. The platform’s source code is hosted on GitHub.
Servers run a software implementation of the protocol, and use the Internet to connect to and communicate with other Stellar servers. Each server stores a ledger of all the accounts in the network. 3 nodes are operated by the Stellar Development Foundation, in conjunction with 21 other organizations, providing for a total of 66 validator nodes. Transactions among accounts occur not through mining but rather through a consensus process among accounts in quorum slice. The current network fee is 100 stroops, equivalent to 0.00001 XLM or 1/10,000th of a cent.
History of Stellar
In 2014, Jed McCaleb, founder of Mt. Gox and co-founder of Ripple, launched the network system Stellar with former lawyer Joyce Kim. Before the official launch, McCaleb formed a website called “Secret Bitcoin Project” seeking alpha testers. The nonprofit Stellar Development Foundation was created in collaboration with Stripe CEO Patrick Collison and the project officially launched that July. Stellar received $3 million in seed funding from Stripe. Stellar was released as a decentralized payment network and protocol with a native currency, stellar. At its launch, the network had 100 billion stellars. 25 percent of those would be given to other non-profits working toward financial inclusion. Stripe received 2 percent or 2 billion of the initial stellars in return for its seed investment. The cryptocurrency, originally known as stellar, was later called Lumens or XLM. In August 2014, Mercado Bitcoin, the first Brazilian bitcoin exchange, announced it would be using the Stellar network. By January 2015, Stellar had approximately 3 million registered user accounts on its platform and its market cap was almost $15 million.
The Stellar Development Foundation released an upgraded protocol with a new consensus algorithm in April 2015 which went live in November 2015. The new algorithm used SCP, a cryptocurrency protocol created by Stanford professor David Mazières.
Lightyear.io, a for-profit entity of Stellar, launched in May 2017 as the commercial arm of the company. In September 2017, Stellar announced a benefits program, part of its Stellar Partnership Grant Program, which would award partners up to $2 million worth of Lumens for project development. In September 2018, Lightyear Corporation acquired Chain, Inc and the combined company was named Interstellar.
Real-world Applications of Stellar
In 2015, it was announced that Stellar was releasing an integration into Vumi, the open-sourced messaging platform of the Praekelt Foundation. Vumi uses cellphone talk time as currency using the Stellar protocol. Stellar partnered with cloud-based banking software company Oradian in April 2015 to integrate Stellar into Oradian’s banking platform to add microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Nigeria.
Deloitte announced its integration with Stellar in 2016 to build a cross-border payments application, Deloitte Digital Bank. In December 2016, it was announced that Stellar’s payment network had expanded to include Coins.ph, a mobile payments startup in the Philippines, ICICI Bank in India, African mobile payments firm Flutterwave, and French remittances company Tempo Money Transfer.
In October 2017, Stellar partnered with IBM and KlickEx to facilitate cross-border transactions in the South Pacific region. The cross-border payment system developed by IBM includes partnerships with banks in the area.
In December 2017, TechCrunch announced Stellar’s partnership with SureRemit, a Nigerian-based non-cash remittances platform.
On January 6, 2021, Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine announced cooperation and partnership with Stellar in development of Ukraine digital infrastructure after which Stellar value increased by 40%.
Earlier today we reported on the “unprecedented demand” for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. As we reported, this very strong demand is the driving force behind pushing the price of cryptocurrencies to all time highs and beyond.
Bitcoin has already more than doubled its previous all time high price of just under $20,000 back in 2017. On the other hand, Ethereum has only recently approached its all time high price from early 2018.
Raoul Pal is well known in financial circles. He is CEO & Co-Founder, Real Vision Group & Global Macro Investor. Raoul Pal leads Real Vision to provide unparalleled access to the very best insights and analysis from the brightest financial minds. He prides himself on being a Business Cycle Economist, Investment Strategist, and Economic Historian.
But it suggests that Ethereum could go to $20,000 on this cycle. Over time, I believe, and if you look at it, the adoption actually of market cap versus number of wallet addresses of Ethereum is ahead of, significantly ahead of where Bitcoin was.
And you see the distribution of returns – Again, I put some of that on twitter. I’ve written this whole piece. I will do a piece of Real Vision crypto in the next couple of weeks. It shows potentially that Ethereum is getting adopted faster and will potentially have a larger market cap than Bitcoin over time.
Again, I’m not putting a “flippening” happening immediately, blah, blah, bl;ah, I’m talking about platform versus asset. And the platform is often more valuable than an asset.
When Raoul states that Ethereum “could go to $20,000 on this cycle”, he is talking about this year, as in 2021. “This cycle” refers to the next 4 year cycle top, due around Christmas of 2021, or a few weeks later.
Longer term, meaning possibly a decade or so, Rauol believes that the price of Ethereum could be higher than the price of Bitcoin. You can see his full Ethereum prediction in this video:
Tyler Winklevoss 2021 Ethereum Prediction
Tyler Winklevoss recently gave an interview in which he predicted that Bitcoin would eventually be worth at least $500,000. In the same interview he also made some forecasts for Ethereum. he stated:
“So, you know, Ether’s got to upgrade. It’s moving to ETH 2.0. There’s some scalability things it’s got to work through. But, like, I’m an optimist and the smartest folks in the room are working on it. So if Ether’a the global computer in the future, what’s that worth? It’s gotta be a ton, and it’s gotta be worth as much as digital gold I would think, maybe more.”
Previously in the interview he stated that digital gold would be equivalent to a $9 trillion market cap. At the time of the interview a couple of weeks ago, the market cap of Ethereum was $84.56 billion. If the total market cap of Ethereum grows to $9 trillion, that would mean that each Ethereum token would be worth about $78,000 a piece, assuming that the growth of the number of new Ethereum tokens created each day continues at the same pace.
Tyler’s full interview can be viewed in this video:
Blocktown Capital’s James Todaro ETH Prediction For 2021
When looking at the fundamentals, we can clearly see that blockchain is a disruptive technology that will invade all of finance and the economy just as software has done in the past 50 years. Fundamentally speaking, crypto is the future.
That’s the basis for our forecast of the continued growth of the industry.
Fundamentals vs. Technicals
When it comes to price forecasting, we always want our technical price analysis to dovetail with our fundamental analysis. Our technical analysis looks at past price behavior, and our fundamental analysis sheds light on whether or not we feel it likely that previous price trends will continue or not.
In the case of Ethereum, like the 3 analysts above, we do feel confident that the positive price trends will continue.
The 4 Year Cycle In Crypto Prices
There is clearly a 4 year cycle in the cryptocurrency market. The next 4 year cycle peak is due around December of 2021.
Bitcoin has gone through 2 complete cycles, but Ethereum has not. With less of a track record, it makes it more difficult to predict where the price of Ethereum will be at the end of 2021.
Looking back at the previous year which was a 4 year cycle top, 2017, Bitcoin started the year on January 1, at $998.33. It ended the year on December 31, 2018 at $14,156.40, after climbing over $19,400 in mid December of that year. Depending on whether you’re looking at the highest price reached in mid December or whether you’re looking at the end of the year price, Bitcoin went up by a factor of between 14x and 19x during the last 4 year cycle top.
While this performance is still exceptional, it is quite a bit less than the gains from the previous 4 year cycle top that happened 4 years prior, in 2013.
Bitcoin started that year on January 1, at $13.30. It ended the year on December 31, at $805.90, after climbing over $1,237 in early December of that year. Again, depending on whether you’re looking at the highest price reached in early December or whether you’re looking at the end of the year price, Bitcoin went up by a factor of between 60x and 93x during the last 4 year cycle top.
The point of looking at Bitcoin’s first two cycles is to see that the first cycle saw larger percentage gain than the second.
Ethereum’s One Cycle Iteration
Ethereum wasn’t created/released until July 30, 2015, so there is no price data from 2013 – it didn’t exist back then.
So Ethereum’s price performance in 2017 was only it’s first 4 year cycle top.
We therefore anticipate that – just like had occurred with Bitcoin – the gains of the second 4 year cycle peak would be less than those of the first 4 year cycle top.
So, how did Ethereum fare in 2017, and what can we extrapolate for 2021?
Ethereum’s Past Price Performance
Ethereum started 2017 on January 1, at $8.20. It ended the year on December 31, 2017 at $736.77, after climbing to $800 in mid December of that year. The Altcoins had a cycle peak that was a couple weeks after Bitcoin reached its ultimate peak. After closing out 2017 at $736.77, Ethereum reached its 4 year cycle peak 2 weeks later on January 13 at $1,423.20. Depending on whether you’re looking at the highest price reached in mid January or whether you’re looking at the end of the year price, Ethereum went up by a factor of between 89x and 173x during 2017 for the last 4 year cycle top.
To recap, Bitcoin went up by 60x and 93x during its first iteration of the 4 year cycle peak, and 14x and 19x during its second iteration.
Ethereum has only seen one 4 year cycle peak during its existence, going up between 89x and 173x.
Price History As A Guide
If Ethereum follows Bitcoin’s lead and the rate of increase slows by the same amount that Bitcoin’s did from the first iteration to the second, that would mean that this year Ethereum will “only” go up between 18x and 34x.
With Ethereum starting the year at $729.12, that equates to a predicted price high between $13,124 and $24,790.
That’s our Ethereum prediction.
As the saying goes, “past performance does not guarantee future results.”
Like all future predictions, at this point in time we don’t know if the forecast is accurate or not, but as of press time, we have a high degree of confidence in our forecast price range being reached.
As of yesterday, XRP was back in the fourth position with a market cap of $10.5 billion. Litecoin, meanwhile, was worth just over $10 billion. In the last week, Litecoin’s price has gained more than 30% while XRP during the same time period has only risen by about 8%.
Litecoin’s price has more than doubled since mid-December, climbing to $163 at the time of this writing from a low of about $70 on December 11, 2020. XRP was also on a tear before the SEC announced a lawsuit against Ripple for allegedly violating securities laws. From its peak to its low, XRP price tumbled more than 73%, according to CoinMarketCap data. XRP has only recovered a portion of what it lost.
XRP’s road to recovery is likely to be a bumpy one as investors await the outcome of the litigation — a process that legal experts say could take several years to play out. We do have the opion – just our opinion – that a settlement will be reached sooner rather than later. Without a settlement with the SEC, the value of XRP could struggle to regain momentum. A wave of delistings at major exchanges has also dampened enthusiasm for XRP.
Meanwhile, Litecoin’s ascendancy likely has more to do with Bitcoin than any change in the project’s underlying fundamentals. Being the oldest of the cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has assumed the role of the leader. Where Bitcoin goes, the altcoins follow.
Bitcoin IRA, the world’s first, largest, and most secure digital asset IRA technology platform that allows clients to purchase cryptocurrencies and other digital assets for their retirement accounts, today released results of their recent survey asking individuals for their market sentiment and investing choices on crypto heading into 2021.
Overall, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues, investors appear to have a more heightened awareness about inflation and its negative impact on US dollars as more investors indicated it as an investment reason from previous surveys. Also, crypto prices have risen sharply in 2020, with Bitcoin far surpassing all-time highs, and the majority of respondents believe they’ll continue much higher into 2021.
Key takeaways from the survey:
Bitcoin’s price projection: 40% of responders believe Bitcoin‘s price will be at least $50,000 at the end of 2021. Bitcoin’s price passed all-time highs in 2020 and investor sentiment remains high likely due to large Bitcoin investments by major companies such as PayPal and MicroStrategy among many others.
Reasons to invest: There’s a significant rise in inflation concerns by respondents as 28% of them stated their primary reason for buying crypto was due to inflation concerns. This is nearly twice as many that stated that reason in the company’s previous annual survey in 2019 (17% selected “inflation” then). Other reasons for buying crypto included that they believed prices would go up (65%) and that they simply wanted to diversify (29%).
Amount invested: A quarter of respondents stated they have invested 50% or more of their total cash or savings into crypto.
Top features: Earning interest remains very desirable for crypto holders as 26% of all respondents requested it. An additional 15% of users wanted to earn rewards through “staking,” which is another method of earning a return on crypto holdings.
The 2021 consumer survey was sent on December 28, 2020, to a randomized group of individuals comprised of the company’s clients, account holders, and customer prospects since 2016. 284 respondents completed the survey. Individuals did not receive compensation or likewise for their participation in the survey.