We’ve written frequently about the 4 year cycle in cryptocurrency prices. Cryptocurrency – this first of which was Bitcoin – was introduced in 2009. Four years later, in 2013, prices surged to a blowoff top. Exactly four years later, in 2017, prices again surged to another blowoff top.
Using this 4 year cycle as a guide, later this year, in 2021, the cryptocurrency market should again experience another blowoff top.
Using this 4 year price cycle in cryptocurrencies, we’ve made predictions on how high the price of Bitcoin could go. We’ve also made 2021 price predictions for altcoins such as Ethereum, Chainlink, EOS, Stellar Lumens and others.
But what about the entire altcoin market as a whole?
Let’s take a look at the previous altcoin season and use that price information to make an educated forecast of where the altcoin market is likely headed later this year.
Whereas Bitcoin was released in 2009, the first Altcoin wasn’t released until 2011. However, Bitcoin is the undisputed leader of the entire cryptocurrency market. The 4 year cycle in altcoins does not see a peak 4 years after the introduction of the first altcoin, but rather the altcoins follow the leader – Bitcoin – and rise and fall in tandem with it.
Here is the chart of the first blowoff top of the entire altcoin market cap:
You can see from the chart above that the total market cap of the entire altcoin market reached its peak of $2,004,339 billion on December 4, 2013.
Like Bitcoin, after reaching its blowoff top in 2013, the altcoins went into a bear market for the next 2 years.
It was not until June of 2016 that the altcoin market convincingly topped its previous all time high, and it wasn’t until more than 3 years later, on December 28, 2016 – exactly 1,120 days – that the altcoin market exceeded its previous all time high for good.
What did the altcoin market do after exceeding its old all time high for good?
The answer can be found in the following chart:
After permanently exceeding the 2013 all time high on December 28, 2016, altcoins then rose for the next 375 days to set a new all time high of $551,926,104 billion on January 5, 2018.
That’s a gain of 27,536%, or stated another way, 275-to-1.
Now let’s take a look at what has happened since then, and see if the altcoin market is following the same pattern, and if so where the 2021 altcoin season is heading.
The 4 Year Cycle In Action
Like what happened in 2013, after reaching its blowoff top in 2017, the altcoins went into a bear market for the next 2 years.
It wasn’t until more than 3 years later, on February 11, 2021 (4 days ago!) – exactly 1,133 days – that the altcoin market exceeded its previous all time high for good.
Wow.
The cycles are amazingly close. In the previous altcoin cycle it took exactly 1120 days for the altcoin market to convincingly exceed its previous record peak, and in the current altcoin cycle it has taken 1133 days to do the same.
The difference in timing is a mere 13 days, which is only one tenth of one percent!
So where to from here?
The Next Altcoin Blowoff Top
Using this cycle as guidance, it would indicate that the altcoin market will go up for the next 375 days and reach a top on February 20, 2022.
If the overall percentage gain is identical, that would place the total altcoin market cap at over $151 trillion.
Is that even possible?
Our opinion: one word, yes.
Let’s see where we are a year from now.
